Momo

$10,000 test bed · target $50,000 by Jan 29, 2027 · prices as of Sep 18, 4:00 PM ET
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Equity
$10,049
Return
+0.5%
SPY since start
-0.1%
vs. pace ($10,367)
-$318
Needed / month from here
+45%
Cash
$7,145
$10,0000.1% of the way · 131 days left$50,000

Action plan

2026-09-21
Before 9:30 AM ET
TWST Buy 9 shares with a buy-stop limit order, day only. Stop $167.20 (just above Friday's high of $167.05); limit $172.00. The order fills only if TWST trades above $167.20. Cost: about $1,505 at the stop price.
last $166.99 +7.3%
2026-09-21
3:50 PM ET
DELL If DELL is trading above $596.00, buy 4 shares at market. Cost: about $2,384. If it is at or below $596.00, place no order; the same check applies Tuesday.
last $568.06 -3.5%
2026-09-21
3:50 PM ET
RBRK If RBRK is trading above $109.10, buy 18 shares at market. Cost: about $1,964. If it is at or below $109.10, place no order; the same check applies Tuesday.
last $106.71 -1.0%
Completed (2)
2026-09-18
9:57 AM ET
GNRC Buy GNRC. Filled 14 shares at $203.94, ahead of the $215 entry rule.
last $207.44 +0.1%
done
2026-09-18
3:45 PM ET
GNRC If GNRC is under $200, sell all 14 shares. If it's at or above $200, do nothing. Result: GNRC closed $207.44, above $200. Held.
last $207.44 +0.1%
done

Open positions

TickerSharesAvgLastDayP&LP&L %ValueWeightStopOpened
GNRC14$203.94$207.44+0.1%$49+1.7%$2,90429%$200.00 (-3.6%)2026-09-18
Unrealized $49 · Realized $0
GNRCstanding rules
Stop
Sell all shares on a daily close under $200 (Amazon warrant strike $200.93). Checked at 3:45 ET each day.
Add
No add. The position is already $2,855 (29%), above the 25% cap. Reassess on a daily close above $215.
Thesis
Amazon deal for data center backup generators worth up to $8B, $2.4B in initial deliveries across 2027 to 2028, plus warrants struck at $200.93. Market is re-pricing GNRC as an AI power supplier.

Watchlist

TickerLastDayTriggerTo triggerSizeStopAdded
THRY$1.83-1.1%$2.20+20.2%$1,000$1.752026-09-18
SMTC$185.00+3.8%$185.50+0.3%$1,500$171.002026-09-19
AMD$559.82+2.7%$585.00+4.5%$1,750$539.002026-09-19
Triggers are checked on the daily close. Price above the trigger intraday is not a buy signal.
THRYwatching
Trigger
Buy $1,000 (10%) on a daily close above $2.20, where the August and September bounces topped out. Or re-evaluate after Q3 earnings (early November) if SaaS revenue returns to growth and EBITDA guidance holds.
Stop
Once bought: sell on a daily close under $1.75 (below the $1.76 52-week low).
Thesis
Insider buying at the lows: CEO Joe Walsh bought 25,000 shares at $1.80 (9/18); Paulson & Co. bought about 400K shares at $2.79 to $2.82 (8/6). Equity is about $80M against about $455M of SaaS revenue guidance, so a stabilized business could re-rate 2 to 3x.
Risk
Net debt $241M (about 3x the equity) on a term loan at SOFR + 6.75% due 2029, against $42 to 44M adj. EBITDA guidance from a legacy business shrinking 36%. Paulson may also be the related-party lender (unconfirmed), which weakens its buy as a signal. Stock is making new lows, against our momentum playbook.
SMTCwatching
Trigger
Alternate. Buy 8 shares on a move above $185.50 (skip above $191), only if cash allows after DELL, RBRK, and TWST. Take SMTC or AMD, not both: same AI-capex trade as DELL.
Stop
Once bought: sell on a daily close under $171 (-7.8%).
Thesis
Record fiscal Q2 (8/25): revenue $342M (+33%), EPS +73%, record backlog. All-time closing high on 9/18 after three straight closes at the top of the range on rising volume.
Risk
Stretched: 25% above its 20-day average. A 10 to 15% shakeout would be normal.
AMDwatching
Trigger
Alternate. Buy 3 shares on a daily close above $585 (a new 52-week high). Take SMTC or AMD, not both.
Stop
Once bought: sell on a daily close under $539 (-7.9%).
Thesis
Nebius raising AMD EPYC instance prices 25% on Oct 1, a direct demand read; record Q2 revenue $11.54B (+50%). +13% in four sessions, closing at the high on rising volume.
Risk
The catalyst comes from a customer, not AMD itself. China exposure ahead of the 9/24 Trump-Xi summit.

Equity vs. pace

10K20K30K40K50K OctNovDecJan
Momo equity$10,000 in SPYPace to $50,000

Closed trades

None yet.

Rules

  • No options.
  • No leveraged ETFs.
  • No margin. Ever.
  • No day trading. Swing trades only (days to weeks).
  • 4 to 6 positions, 15 to 25% each. Cash is a position.
  • Every buy has a thesis, entry rule, and invalidation price.
  • Cut losers at about -8% or on thesis break. No averaging down.
  • Add to winners up 10%+ that are acting well.

Notes

2026-09-19
Weekend screen: about 150 tickers reviewed (prices from Yahoo, catalysts checked against original sources). Picks: DELL, RBRK, TWST, all entering only on a breakout trigger. If all three fill, that's about $5,853 of the $7,145 cash, leaving about $1,290. Alternates on the watchlist: SMTC or AMD (not both). Rejected: CRWD (same trade as RBRK), ILMN (post-S&P-add fade risk), TEM (analyst note, not news), RUM (heavy dilution), BE/VICR (same AI-power theme as GNRC), COIN (relief rally inside a downtrend). Week risks: Trump-Xi summit Thu 9/24; PMIs 9/23; durable goods 9/25. Breadth is weak: only 49% of S&P stocks are above their 200-day average.
2026-09-18
Added THRY to the watchlist at James's request. Not bought: weak signal next to the balance sheet, and it's in a downtrend. Trigger: daily close above $2.20.
2026-09-18
Filled 14 GNRC at $203.94 ($2,855, 29% of the account) at 9:57, ahead of the $215 entry rule. Keeping it: the stop (daily close under $200) is 1.9% away, so the planned loss is about $55. Today's action is weak: it ran to $214.85, got rejected just under $215, and fell back to the $203.50 low. The stop is live. No add until GNRC closes back above $215.
2026-09-18
Account corrected to $10K. Target is $50K by Jan 29, 2027: still 5x, but one month shorter, so about 44%/month compounded. Strategy unchanged; all sizes halved. GNRC premarket $208.56, SPY -0.3%. Analysts are raising targets after the Amazon deal (reported: Stifel $285, Canaccord $375). The entry rule stands: reclaim $215 and hold through the first hour, or skip.
2026-09-17
Weekend job: screen for the next 3 to 5 names, starting with AI power and grid (GNRC, BE peers). Each comes with a thesis, entry, and stop.
2026-09-17
GNRC closed Thursday at $207.23 (+18.3%), well off its $231.89 intraday high. A day-one fade is a warning, so the entry now needs a reclaim of $215 instead of a plain opening breakout. The stop at $200 is only about 3.5% below the close, which keeps the risk small if the thesis is right.